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Topic: Race Predicition Calculator
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[Posted 12/20/2006 4:02:04 PM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[r2web]


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Something like McMillan - If I run x distance in xx:xx, I should be able to run y distance in yy:yy.




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[Posted 12/21/2006 3:42:26 PM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[Hoya]


The Boss

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There are a few versions of this type of calculation:
1. Purdy Points
2. VO2 Max
3. Dave Cameron's Model
4. Pete Riegel's Model

Gerry Purdy was the first developer of such a system that was widely used called RunningTrax. Adding any of these systems can be done - here is a site that does a very nice job of this - http://run-down.com/statistics/calc.php

But with any of these systems you have to understand that everyone reacts differently to the many factors that go into a race so man-made formulas can only do so much and converting one race distance time to another distance is not really that valid - but it's fun to look at.




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[Posted 12/22/2006 5:32:16 AM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[Brewman]


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I find the McMillan calculator very accurate - http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/rununiv/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm - but if you're using it to predict longer races, i.e., a marathon, it assumes that you are actually in marathon shape. The ability to run a 4:30 mile does not necessarily guarantee you can run a 2:31 marathon, but that you have the potential to do so.




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[Posted 12/24/2006 12:34:57 PM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[Strider]


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I just trained and PR'd at the marathon distance. When I plug that number in it seems to calculate a slow 5k time. I wondered if that means that I am faster at shorter distances or whether others also found a similar bias in the calculator. I do understand that it is most accurate when predicting similar distances, but has anyone found it making errors in predicting a 5k time that was too fast based upon a marathon time?
Just curios.
Art




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[Posted 12/26/2006 2:52:08 PM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[runningart]


KWF

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Marathons and other long races will tend to predict slower because you don't race them as much as 5k races. If you only ran one or two 5k races a year I'd suspect them to be slower. So...if you take a collegiate runner who's run hundreds of 5ks, 10ks, 1500m races, etc and who's been training for these races for the last 8 years then put them through 6 months to a year worth of marathon training you can't expect them to set an "equal" marathon pr. They have 8 years of training focusing on other distances and have run hundreds of much shorter races. Because of that the marathon has quite a large learning curve nowadays...mostly because runners don't run many marathons anymore. Look at Ron Hill, who ran 27:50s for 6 miles in the mid 60s, ran a bunch of marathons in the 2:15-2:20 range before '69, then that year ran sub 2:10 3 or 4 times.

Alan




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[Posted 12/26/2006 6:57:29 PM]  Race Predicition Calculator

[joeykrepps]


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http://run-down.com/statistics/calc.php works pretty well




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